[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 180115
SWODY1
SPC AC 180113

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
SGF 40 NNW JLN 10 S OJC 30 ESE BRL 10 NW CGX GRR LAN 10 SE JXN 40 SE
FWA 10 NNE DNV DEC 30 NNE POF 35 ESE SGF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW
BBW 55 ENE SNY 20 E BFF 35 SW CDR 20 NNE CDR 55 S PHP 45 S 9V9 50
WNW OFK 35 ESE BUB 10 WSW BBW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE AQQ 50 S TYS 15
WNW BLF 25 NE SSU CHO 35 N RIC 40 NE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W CLE LEX 20 ESE
BWG MKL HRO 10 ENE BVO ICT HUT 20 SW MHK MKC BRL 20 S MKG 60 SE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CTB 20 WNW LWT
35 NW MLS 40 NNE RAP 20 NE PIR 55 NNE ABR 30 SSE ISN 55 NNE GGW
...CONT... 25 S CMX CWA 15 SSW LSE 15 SSE FOD 30 WNW LNK 25 E AKO 20
WNW LIC 15 WSW PUB RTN 30 E TCC MAF 40 NNE DRT 10 NNW COT 25 E CRP
...CONT... 25 WSW IPL 15 WSW NID 20 NW NFL DLS 60 NW 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/SRN MO NEWD INTO
SRN MI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL
NEB...

...MIDWEST...
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS EXTEND FROM SRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN
MO ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...UPPER FORCING IS WEAK AND STORMS HAVE
BEEN THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN. ISOLATED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL/WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS ...BUT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY NON-SEVERE THE REST OF NIGHT.

...NWRN NEB/EXTREME SRN SD...
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN MO WWD INTO WRN NEB...WHERE A
WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED. HIGH BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPED
EARLIER IN SERN WY AND HAS SPREAD EWD ACROSS WRN NEB. SURFACE BASED
STORMS DEVELOPED THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THE WY CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH HAIL/WIND DAMAGE. THE LIMITING
FACTOR IS THE WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ONLY UP TO 1000 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS THE CONVECTION
SPREADS SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EVENING.

...SRN/CENTRAL AZ...
MULTICELL STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY SWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN AZ...
THOUGH THE STORMS ARE NOT QUITE AS ORGANIZED AS THOSE MONDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE STORMS WAS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...EVEN WITH THE LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS.
SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z-04...THOUGH THE WEAK
MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS SUGGESTS THAT THE THREAT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.


...NRN NV...
UPPER CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED OVER NRN UT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID
LEVEL WINDS LOCATED ACROSS NRN NV. MORE INTENSE SURFACE HEATING
OCCURRED OVER NV EARLIER TODAY AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRONGER
INSTABILITY THAN UNDER THE CLOUD FILLED LOW IN UT. A COUPLE OF
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z ACROSS NRN NV... GIVEN THE
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...WITH
THE STORMS WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...NERN ND AND NRN MN...
UNUSUALLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET MAX WILL DIVE SWD TONIGHT FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR THE MANITOBA/ND BY DAYBREAK. VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS WITH HUGE HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL JET MAX OF 70 TO 80 KT
SUGGEST STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...SO ONLY A 5% THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL FOR LATER TONIGHT.

..IMY.. 08/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.