[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 032004
SWODY1
SPC AC 032002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW
LSE 20 NW MSN 25 ESE JVL 15 NNW MMO 40 E MLI 50 W CID 50 WSW FOD 40
N MCW 15 WSW LSE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OLF
DIK HON 20 NW MKT 20 NW MKT 35 NE VOK 10 NW MKE SBN 20 NE HUF 10 SW
SLO 30 E COU 40 NE MKC 35 SW BIE 20 NNW MCK SNY 81V SHR LVM 45 NW
3HT OLF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
HUL 10 NE BGR AUG 10 NNW PWM 20 SE MWN 15 S BML 45 WSW 3B1 55 NNE
3B1 30 SW CAR 20 S HUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 20 NW VCT
25 ESE CLL 40 N LFT 35 NNW AYS 25 WSW CHS 20 ESE ECG 30 NE CHO 30 W
LOZ 55 SW CKV 20 WNW DYR 55 NW POF TBN 30 NNW SGF 15 SE PNC 50 NNE
CDS 25 SE LBB 15 SSE P07 ...CONT... 55 SSW TUS 50 N TUS 70 E PHX 60
SSW INW 20 WSW FLG 45 SW GCN 65 SSE SGU 20 NE P38 60 NW ENV 20 NE
SUN 50 N SUN 80 S S80 20 NNW BKE 50 SE EPH 20 NE YKM 45 SE RDM 50
NNW LMT 40 S EUG 20 SE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 N ISN 20 WSW BIS
10 NNE AXN 25 SW RHI 30 WSW MBL 10 S OSC.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN
IA...EXTREME SERN MN...SWRN WI AND NRN IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE
CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF CNTRL
ME...

...UPPER MS VLY AND MIDWEST...
BOW ECHO WITH HISTORY OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EWD AT AROUND 45 KTS ALONG THE SCNTRL MN/NCNTRL IA BORDER.  IT HAS
NOT MADE A TURN TO THE RIGHT/SE AS EARLIER EXPECTED.  MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL WI AND THE AIR MASS BETWEEN THIS
BOUNDARY AND THE WARM FRONT OVER IA HAS BECOME UNSTABLE.  AS A
RESULT...THE SLIGHT/MODERATE RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED NEWD INTO
PARTS OF SRN WI.  COMBO OF DRIER AIR AND LAKE BREEZE OVER NERN HALF
OF WI WILL LIKELY MITIGATE THE SEVERE THREAT THERE THROUGH TONIGHT.

FARTHER SOUTH...18Z DAVENPORT SOUNDING WAS CAPPED...THOUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90F AND MAINTENANCE OF UPPER 70S DEW
POINTS...CINH IS SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED
INITIATION GIVEN ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE TRENDS...PRIND THAT THE BOW ECHO SHOULD MOVE
EWD...THEN GRADUALLY TURN/DEVELOP MORE SEWD ALONG H85-H3 THICKNESS
LINES AND ALONG STRONGER CAP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. 
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED SELY ACROSS THE
MDT RISK AREA AND WILL LIKELY AUGMENT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEEDED TO SUSTAIN THE BOW. THUS...HIGHEST RISK OF SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FROM NERN/ECNTRL IA...SWRN WI AND
POSSIBLY INTO NRN IL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SWD IN CNTRL IA AS CINH WEAKENS OWING TO
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.  THESE STORMS MAY ALSO TRACK EWD INTO THE
MDT RISK AREA WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DENOTES A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL NEB
WITH A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH CNTRL KS.  THERE HAS BEEN
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MIDLEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS NEB/CNTRL KS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE
90S.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SURFACE BASED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
VCNTY THESE FEATURES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 

GIVEN 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE
THE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE 25-30 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR. LARGE DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. 
LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR TOO...BUT THE TROPOSPHERE IS RATHER WARM.

...MAINE...
LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL
MAINE. MLCAPE TO 1000 J/KG AND PRESENCE OF A WEAK MCV MAY SUPPORT A
DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
WEAK IMPULSE IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR LOOPS FROM SCNTRL MT INTO WY
THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF TSTMS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS SERN MT AND
NERN WY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND WILL LIKELY MOVE EWD INTO WRN SD
THIS EVENING.  MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE LACK OF STRONG INSOLATION.  HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  

FARTHER W...MOUNTAIN TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLD
DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO THIS EVENING.

...ERN CAROLINAS...
MOREHEAD CITY VWP SHOWS THAT THE WIND FLOW HAS TURNED NLY AS HRCN
ALEX ACCELERATES NEWD. THUS...THE TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED.

..RACY.. 08/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.