[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031617
SWODY1
SPC AC 031615

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FRM 45
S RST DBQ MLI BRL 45 ENE OMA SUX YKN 20 NW FSD FRM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OLF
DIK HON MKT MSN SBN HUF 40 W MDH COU TOP HLC SNY 81V SHR LVM 45 NW
3HT OLF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW
3B1 3B1 AUG MPV BTV 25 NNE PBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 20 NW VCT
25 ESE CLL 40 N LFT 20 E JAN 15 ENE RMG 30 SW BLF 40 WSW BKW 30 W
LOZ 35 SW CKV 30 NW DYR 55 NW POF 15 SSW VIH 50 N SGF 35 NE OKC 50
NNE CDS 25 SE LBB 15 SSE P07 ...CONT... 55 SSW TUS 50 N TUS 70 E PHX
60 SSW INW 20 WSW FLG 45 SW GCN 65 SSE SGU 20 NE P38 60 NW ENV 20 NE
SUN 50 N SUN 80 S S80 20 NNW BKE 50 SE EPH 20 NE YKM 45 SE RDM 50
NNW LMT 40 S EUG 20 SE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 N ISN 20 WSW BIS
10 NNE AXN 25 SW RHI 30 WSW MBL 10 S OSC.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER MUCH OF IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF VT/NH/ME...

...SD/MN/IA/IL...
COMPLEX AND ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN
UNITED STATES TODAY.  INTENSE BOW ECHO NOW OVER SOUTHEAST SD IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL IA THIS AFTERNOON.  AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION IS VERY MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S AND MUCAPE
VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  SLOW DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF STORMS AND
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS
OVER IA THIS AFTERNOON.  RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. 
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  EASTWARD
EXTENT OF THESE STORMS REMAINS A QUESTION...BUT IT APPEARS POSSIBLE
THAT ACTIVITY COULD POSE A THREAT TO PARTS OF NORTHERN IL/NORTHERN
IND LATER TONIGHT.

...SD/NEB/IA/MO THIS EVENING...
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEB...SOUTH OF CURRENT SD BOW ECHO...WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
MAY EXCEED 4000 J/KG.  COMBINATION OF FULL HEATING AND SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING OUT OF THE ROCKIES MAY AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SD/NORTHERN
NEB.  THESE STORMS WILL POSE AN INITIAL RISK OF VERY LARGE
HAIL...BUT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO ANOTHER MCS THAT WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN IA AND NORTHERN MO OVERNIGHT.

...MT/SD/ND...
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS OVER EASTERN MT TODAY...WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.  CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN OVER THIS
REGION BY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SUFFICIENT HEATING FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE ND/SD BORDERS BY EVENING.  VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY /0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35
KNOTS/ SUGGESTING THAT A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD OCCUR WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

...NEW ENGLAND...
SMALL MCV OVER NORTHERN VT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO ME
THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
DESTABILIZATION.  LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS
IN STRONGER CELLS.

...NC...
HURRICANE ALEX CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD HAT
THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND CELLULAR CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
BRIEF TORNADOES NEAR EYEWALL AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF
CENTER...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER BANKS.

..HART.. 08/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.