[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 141325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141325 
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-141730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0060
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NY...MA AND FAR SRN VT/NH

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 141325Z - 141730Z

EPISODES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NY EWD INTO FAR SRN VT/NH AND MA.
HRLY ACCUMULATIONS RATES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN 0.05 INCH.


ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS INCREASING OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND FAR WRN
NY IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET OVER SRN QUEBEC. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE FREEZING LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR JHW TO 40 N POU TO ORH.
NWD MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE MAY OCCUR AS WAA INCREASES ...BUT GIVEN
THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE AREA...THE OVERALL
MOVEMENT OF THE FREEZING ISOTHERM SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE 12Z ALB SOUNDING INDICATED THE DEPTH OF THE ABOVE
FREEZING ELEVATED WARM LAYER IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN NY. STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ON THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL
CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF PRECIP...WITH HRLY LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS RATES
UP TO 0.10 IN. WITHIN THESE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...SLEET MAY MIX WITH
THE FREEZING RAIN. MORE STEADY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OUT OF MI INTO SWRN/CENTRAL NY BETWEEN 15-17Z AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES AT
THAT TIME.

..CROSBIE.. 01/14/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...BGM...BUF...

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