[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Jan 14 12:48:55 UTC 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 141252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141251 
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-141645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0059
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS...OK AND NE TX

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 141251Z - 141645Z

MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW LIKELY FROM FAR SRN KS TO SCNTRL OK. FURTHER
SOUTH IN SRN OK AND NE TX...FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT MODE
OF PRECIPITATION. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM .05 TO .15 THROUGH
MIDDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE SRN PLAINS. NLY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL REINFORCE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 18 TO 20
DEGREES F IN FAR SRN KS TO AROUND 30 DEGREES F NEAR THE RED RIVER.
12Z MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM AMA AND OUN SHOW A WARM LAYER AROUND
2500-3000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITH TEMPS AS WARM AS +7.0
CELSIUS. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SLEET WITH A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS NW OK AND SRN KS WHERE THE WARM LAYER IS NOT AS THICK.
IN ADDITION...ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE MCD AREA WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 300 J/KG. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION AS THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. AS A RESULT...THE COVERAGE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MIDDAY.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE FWD 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL WARM LAYER
FROM JUST ABOVE THE GROUND TO ABOUT 800 MB WITH +12 CELSIUS NEAR 850
MB. IN ADDITION...ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 500 J/KG WHICH
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHORT BURSTS OF  HEAVY
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION
APPEARS LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER AS THE
STRONGER FORCING EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
MOST AREAS IN NORTH TX AND FAR SRN OK SHOULD RECEIVE A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE WITH A QUARTER INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING.

..BROYLES.. 01/14/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...

32799776 33379837 34139869 35369933 36079997 36819984
37359913 37489746 37009652 35549548 33669511 32909611
32709713 