[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jan 13 23:46:55 UTC 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 132350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132349 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-140245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME E-CENTRAL/NE TX...NWRN
LA...SRN/ERN AR.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 132349Z - 140245Z

BAND OF TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IS FCST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS
IT MOVES EWD ACROSS CORRIDOR NEAR LINE FROM
GGG...SHV...ELD...PBF...50 SW MEM.  RAIN RATES COMMONLY 1-1.25
INCH/HOUR ARE EXPECTED...LOCALLY/BRIEFLY TOPPING 2 INCHES/HOUR IN
MOST INTENSE CORES.

23Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW BETWEEN SHV-GGG...WHICH
SHOULD LIFT NEWD INTO SWRN AR DURING NEXT FEW HOURS.  STRONGEST
CONVERGENCE AND STORM-RELATIVE/SFC-BASED INFLOW LIKEWISE IS FCST TO
SHIFT NEWD AHEAD OF LOW...WITH COLD FRONT UNDERCUTTING SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY FOR DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING SW OF LOW.  STILL...ACTIVITY MAY
FORM ATOP SHALLOW FRONTAL LAYER IN ENVIRONMENT OF ELEVATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WAA...AIDING PROPAGATIONAL MAINTENANCE OF SWRN PORTION
OF PRECIP/TSTM BAND.  GIVEN NEARLY PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF ACTIVITY
RELATIVE TO AMBIENT MEAN FLOW...TRAINING OF CORES IS LIKELY TO
FURTHER AUGMENT HEAVY RAIN HAZARD.  ALTHOUGH 73 F DEW POINT AT SFC
STATION IER IS BOGUS...GPS SENSOR DATA AND NEAR-TERM FCST SOUNDINGS
AHEAD OF FRONT INDICATE FAVORABLY RICH MOISTURE WITH NARROW ZONE OF
PW 1.4-1.7 INCH THROUGH NEARLY SATURATED DEEP-LAYER
PROFILE...PORTENDING EFFICIENT PRECIP PROCESSES IN MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION.  HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD REMAIN S OF FREEZING LINE ACROSS
PORTIONS OZARKS.  ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP
POTENTIAL FARTHER N WILL BE DISCUSSED IN UPCOMING SPC WINTER WEATHER
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

WARM SECTOR VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALSO ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SVR
POTENTIAL WITH 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 200 J/KG...AND WEAK SBCAPES OF
200-300 J/KG.  BRIEF TORNADO OR DAMAGING GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. 
HOWEVER...LACK OF MORE ROBUST BUOYANCY AND OF DISCRETE CONVECTIVE
MODE SHOULD KEEP THIS THREAT MRGL AT MOST.

..EDWARDS.. 01/13/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

32999409 33439346 34499237 34799096 34139083 33769120
32389241 31929448 