[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jan 13 18:34:10 UTC 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 131837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131836 
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-132300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0051
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...CNTRL/SRN MO...CNTRL/ERN OK...PORTIONS OF
N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 131836Z - 132300Z

OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS ERN OK/PORTIONS OF
N-CNTRL TX. ICE ACCUMULATION RATES SHOULD BRIEFLY REACH AROUND .05
TO .10 IN/HR...WITH LOCALIZED RATES EXCEEDING .10 IN/HR.

INTERMITTENT FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN ONGOING ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
A WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY N/NEWD ACROSS
THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
CONFINED BETWEEN THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE AND COLD
FRONT...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE BELOW FREEZING SECTOR
AND PRODUCED LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 15Z
RUC AND 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE EWD PROGRESS OF
THIS WARM/MOIST OVERRUNNING AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER W...A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE IN FAR WRN OK /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ HAS
AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SLEET SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN CNTRL OK. THIS IMPULSE WILL HELP
STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL JET THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MO
RIVER VALLEY...WITH SUBSTANTIAL RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION DIVERGENCE TO
ITS SOUTH. THUS...A RELATIVELY ELONGATED AXIS OF OCCASIONAL FREEZING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE. THIS AXIS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WRN DFW METRO
AREA NNEWD ALONG THE US-69 CORRIDOR IN OK...ARCING NEWD ALONG THE
I-44 CORRIDOR IN MO.

..GRAMS.. 01/13/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...

36529414 35179529 32859692 32299736 32329760 32959774
33639806 33939800 34759768 35799726 36909668 37569612
38089507 38319390 38249252 38349019 38079028 37499115 