[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jan 12 12:43:54 UTC 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 121247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121246 
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-121645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0041
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SW OK...CNTRL OK..NE OK AND SE KS

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 121246Z - 121645Z

FREEZING RAIN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS MORNING ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY FREEZING RAIN INCLUDE SW
OK...CNTRL OK...NE OK AND SE KS. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR SPRINGFIELD
MO EXTENDING SWWD TO SOUTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY OK TO NEAR LAWTON OK.
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EXIST ABOUT 30 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT AND THIS COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE MCD AREA THROUGH MIDDAY WITH
A SUBSTANTIAL WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SFC SHOWN ON THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM NORMAN AND AMARILLO.  IN ADDITION...MODEL FORECASTS
INCREASE LIFT ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST LIFT
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN STRONG IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY EXIST ACROSS NW TX AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. DIFFERENTIAL PVA WITH THIS APPROACHING WAVE WOULD LIKELY
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING.  DUE TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES AND WARM AIR
JUST OFF THE GROUND EVIDENT ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS...FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT MODE OF PRECIPITATION.

..BROYLES.. 01/12/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

36199541 35279730 34409931 34829989 35289990 35659963
37109684 37689539 37469474 36719456 

WWWW