[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 081133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081133 
VAZ000-NCZ000-081300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 AM CST MON JAN 08 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN VA/ERN NC INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 081133Z - 081300Z

THREAT EXISTS FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS..AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
ACROSS ERN NC INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS NWD TO SERN VA UNTIL 14-15Z.
GIVEN LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF
THIS THREAT...A WW IS UNLIKELY.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A COUPLE OF LINES OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM SERN VA TO ERN NC AND SWD TO ABOUT 70 MILES E OF THE
SC COAST.  DESPITE THE LACK OF LIGHTNING...A VERY MOIST PRE-FRONTAL
AIR MASS IS SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  STRONG WINDS EVIDENT
PER AREA WSR-88D VADS WITH 40-50 KT SSWLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE
PRODUCING AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  IN ADDITION...09Z RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER IS AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH SRH VALUES FAVORABLE FOR
STORM ROTATION.  THUS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST
ACROSS ERN NC/SERN VA...PRIOR TO VEERING SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE AFTER 15Z.

..PETERS.. 01/08/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

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