[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 050035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050034 
LAZ000-MSZ000-050200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CST THU JAN 04 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 1...

VALID 050034Z - 050200Z

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA AS A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PART OF TORNADO WATCH 1.
ALTHOUGH TORNADOES WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT...ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR. AREAS IN SRN MS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR NEW WW ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MESO-LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF BATON
ROUGE LA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW WITH A WARM FRONT
LOCATED NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MS. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED
FROM THE LOW EXTENDING SWD TO AREAS JUST OFF THE COAST FROM MORGAN
CITY LA. AHEAD OF THE LINE...THE SFC DEWPOINT AT BATON ROUGE HAS
RISEN A FEW DEGREES F OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS INTO THE UPPER 60S F.
THIS INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE MAY BE
ENHANCING INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT.

IN ADDITION...A 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS SHOWN BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
IN SRN MS WHICH IS RESULTING IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER SE LA. 
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES ON WSR-88D VWPS IN THE NEW ORLEANS LA AREA
CONTINUE TO SHOW ADEQUATE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND 40 KT OF FLOW AT 1 KM. THIS AMOUNT OF SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOES WITH ROTATING STORMS IN THE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY SHIFT INTO THE COASTAL AREAS
WHERE INSTABILITY MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS.

..BROYLES.. 01/05/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

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