[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jan 4 21:18:59 UTC 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 042123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042122 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-042245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CST THU JAN 04 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...PORTIONS SRN MS.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 1...

VALID 042122Z - 042245Z

POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR INTERMITTENT INTENSIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES...AND ASSOCIATED RISK OF TORNADOES...FROM TSTMS
EMBEDDED IN LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION AND PRECIP NOW SHIFTING EWD
OVER WW AREA.  ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE FROM WET
DOWNBURSTS -- PARTICULARLY WITHIN SUPERCELLULAR REAR-FLANK
DOWNDRAFTS OR SMALL BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE WARM FRONT NOW INLAND BETWEEN
ARA-BTR...SEWD ACROSS MSY AREA THEN OFFSHORE MS/AL COASTS.  THIS
FRONT -- WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY...SHEAR AND
LIFT -- SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NEWD OVER REMAINDER SERN LA AND
EXTREME SRN MS AHEAD OF MAIN PRECIP BAND.  FRONT REMAINS SHALLOW AND
SOME EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS CAN BE SFC-BASED TO ITS N.  MODIFIED
18Z SIL RAOB...VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES...WITH 0-1 KM SRH 150-300 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IN 40-50 KT
RANGE.  BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE OFFSETS WEAK DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES TO
YIELD MRGL BUT STILL POTENTIALLY SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH NWD EXTENT.  MLCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER WW AREA...ESPECIALLY E OF PRECIP SHIELD WHERE
WEAK SFC HEATING AND WAA HAVE BOOSTED TEMPS TO NEAR 70 F.

..EDWARDS.. 01/04/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

29499179 29609201 30089183 30709138 31369043 31399000
31148952 30918900 30228837 30228893 29958881 29558899
29398929 29188899 28928941 29208948 29328981 29079018
29039039 29109052 29029085 29339134 29479122 29549149 