[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Jan 7 20:47:35 UTC 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 072051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072051 
GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-072215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CST SUN JAN 07 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN MS...AL...WRN FL
PANHANDLE...WRN/CENTRAL GA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10...

VALID 072051Z - 072215Z

WW SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG/AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE...BUT CAN BE
CLEARED BEHIND IT DUE TO CAA AND RELATED STABILIZATION.  ANOTHER WW
MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS GA.

BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS -- MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT --
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E ACROSS WW AREA...PRECEDED BY SEVERAL SHORTER
 CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS WHICH ALSO MAY BECOME SVR.  WARM FRONT HAS
SHIFTED INTO NERN AL AND NWRN GA...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS ATL
AREA BEFORE MAIN TSTM LINE ARRIVES.  FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME ACROSS WRN/NRN GA AS MIDLEVEL HEIGHT
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH.  WARM SECTOR WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH
150-300 J/KG.  0-1 KM SRH SHOULD BE EVEN HIGHER IN IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF WARM FRONT -- 250-400 J/KG -- WHERE TORNADO POTENTIAL
MAY BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED.  RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
NEAR WARM FRONT AS WELL WITH SFC DEW POINTS NEAR 70 F JUST TO ITS
S...ALTHOUGH MIXING HAS CREATED POCKET OF LOW-MID 60S DEW POINTS
FARTHER S OVER SERN AL/SWRN GA/CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE.  BUOYANCY WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL EVEN IN AREAS OF MAXIMIZED MOISTURE...BECAUSE OF
POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT.  HOWEVER...PRIND MUCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED THREAT.

..EDWARDS.. 01/07/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...LIX...

34518558 34208494 33938447 33448335 32768312 31928340
31668486 30378706 30458919 31998834 33468692 