[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Sep 22 21:07:54 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 222108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222108 
WIZ000-222315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0408 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 222108Z - 222315Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SWRN/SCENTRAL WI IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. A TORNADO WW MAY BE NEEDED BY
22Z.

LATEST VISIBLE SAT DATA SHOWS CLEARING WAS OCCURRING RELATIVELY
RAPIDLY OVER SWRN WI AND FAR NWRN IL AS UPPER JET MAX MOVES BY AND
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE REGION. A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WIDEN ACROSS
SRN WI OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS AS A RESULT OF THE EWD MOVING DRY
SLOT/CLEARING. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION
WILL BE ALONG A NEWD MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR OVS SEWD TO JUST NEAR FREEPORT IL AT 21Z. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH /MLCAPES FROM 750-1000
J/KG/ STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /30 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR PER THE MKX
VWP/ COUPLED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IF TSTMS DO DEVELOP.

..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...

42618782 43178782 43629017 43609058 43299062 42529030
42518790 