[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Sep 22 20:33:53 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 222034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222034 
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-222230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KY...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 222034Z - 222230Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS UNDER A STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME. OVERALL
SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH IN THE NEXT 3+ HRS THAT A
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LATEST REGIONAL PROFILER AND VWP DATA INDICATED 60-70 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...AND BETWEEN 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ONGOING
CONVECTION REMAINS ELEVATED ABOVE MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER /SFC
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S/. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /MUCAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG/ SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
THREAT. GIVEN DEPTH OF THE STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SFC /1 KM/ IT IS
ANTICIPATED THAT THE DMGG WIND THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY MARGINAL
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES MARKEDLY. THUS
A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS.

..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

37548655 39418702 39998720 40528642 40448529 39848514
38508457 37848446 37558455 37068463 36948524 36958650 

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