[MCD] SWOMCD
Mesoscale Convective Discussions
mcd at goshenarc.org
Thu Sep 21 22:00:37 UTC 2006
ACUS11 KWNS 212201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212200
OKZ000-KSZ000-212330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1995
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 782...
VALID 212200Z - 212330Z
VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 782 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HAIL.
NEARLY STACKED COLD CORE LOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDED FRONT ARCING ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE I-35/135 CORRIDOR FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL
OK. SCATTERED MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL ROTATION HAVE
BEEN COMMON ALONG THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY...WITH A NUMBER OF TORNADO
REPORTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS IN MITCHELL/RUSSELL/LINCOLN
COUNTIES.
WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY RATHER MODEST TOTAL CAPE
-- GENERALLY 500 J/KG MLCAPE OR LESS -- A RELATIVELY HIGH
CONCENTRATION OF 0-3 KM CAPE OF AROUND 100 J/KG AND ENLARGED LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION/ISOLATED TORNADOES.
ONGOING STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS RAIN COOLED/MORE STABLE AIR BECOMES MORE
PREVALENT ALONG THE OCCLUSION. MEANWHILE...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT
LEAST ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KS
INTO NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OK THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH
CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES/HAIL AND ENHANCED WIND
GUSTS INCREASING.
..GUYER.. 09/21/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...
39119838 39299775 38239621 37429516 36579491 35579498
35139621 35239710 36919728 37729767
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