[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 212201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212200 
OKZ000-KSZ000-212330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1995
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 782...

VALID 212200Z - 212330Z

VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 782 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HAIL.

NEARLY STACKED COLD CORE LOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDED FRONT ARCING ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE I-35/135 CORRIDOR FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL
OK. SCATTERED MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL ROTATION HAVE
BEEN COMMON ALONG THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY...WITH A NUMBER OF TORNADO
REPORTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS IN MITCHELL/RUSSELL/LINCOLN
COUNTIES.

WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY RATHER MODEST TOTAL CAPE
-- GENERALLY 500 J/KG MLCAPE OR LESS -- A RELATIVELY HIGH
CONCENTRATION OF 0-3 KM CAPE OF AROUND 100 J/KG AND ENLARGED LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION/ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ONGOING STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS RAIN COOLED/MORE STABLE AIR BECOMES MORE
PREVALENT ALONG THE OCCLUSION. MEANWHILE...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT
LEAST ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KS
INTO NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OK THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH
CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES/HAIL AND ENHANCED WIND
GUSTS INCREASING.

..GUYER.. 09/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...

39119838 39299775 38239621 37429516 36579491 35579498
35139621 35239710 36919728 37729767