[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 092001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092000 
KSZ000-092130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1954
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SAT SEP 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 092000Z - 092130Z

HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NECESSARY
THIS AFTERNOON.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A NNE TO SSW BOUNDARY
WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS LOCALLY ENHANCED ACCORDING TO
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED NEAR A MAXIMUM IN
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1200 TO 1500 J/KG.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT
STEEP. AS A RESULT...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SFC HEATING...A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS
MAY HAVE A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

..BROYLES.. 09/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...

37440114 39020064 39779986 39359902 37919973 37140007 

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