[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 091914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091914 
AZZ000-092115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT SAT SEP 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 091914Z - 092115Z

ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN AZ. A WW SHOULD NOT BE
REQUIRED.

MORNING CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO
AREA...LEAVING A WEST TO EAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN ITS WAKE /PER VIS
IMAGERY/. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
INTERSECTING AN AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY NOSING NEWD ALONG THE
GILA RIVER VALLEY. WIND PROFILES IN THIS REGION ARE MARGINAL FOR
ORGANIZED TSTMS...WITH MID-LEVEL WLYS OF 30 KTS OR GREATER CONFINED
IN A NARROW ZONE FURTHER N PER REGIONAL VAD PROFILERS. IN
ADDITION...12Z RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER MODEST
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...AMPLE INSTABILITY VIA STRONG
SURFACE HEATING /SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ ACROSS THE SW DESERTS SHOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTMS WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..GRAMS.. 09/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

33210972 32671010 32451105 32301262 32571382 33521409
34311374 34501239 34341074 33970982 

WWWW