[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Sep 9 17:11:05 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 091713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091713 
VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-091815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT SAT SEP 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...NRN PA...WRN VT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 091713Z - 091815Z

AS CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
ERN NY AND NRN PA...HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO FAR NRN NY. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S F AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS
MUCH OF SRN NY AND NRN PA. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST WSR-88D VWPS SUGGEST 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 KT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT
MARGINAL. HOWEVER...A BRIEF SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE BETTER
ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY MAXIMIZED AND
LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST.

..BROYLES.. 09/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

42717306 41427436 40897675 40947800 41437853 42007830
42677551 43927474 44277381 43717274 