[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Sep 9 07:24:33 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 090727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090726 
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-090930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT SAT SEP 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AZ AND SWRN UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 090726Z - 090930Z

ISOLATED VIGOROUS TSTMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER PARTS OF NWRN AZ AND SWRN UT EARLY TODAY. AREAL EXTENT OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AND A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING
SRN CA APPEARS TO BE ACTING ON VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE CO RIVER VALLEY EARLY TODAY. RESULTING ISOLATED
ELEVATED CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY ACROSS SRN MOHAVE COUNTY AZ...AS WELL AS WASHINGTON
COUNTY UT. GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION...
AND MODEST EFFECTIVE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR IN THE RANGE OF
20-30KT...WEAKLY ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT STORM UPDRAFTS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. GREATEST THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE
SEVERE HAIL OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY CELL MERGERS. LATEST SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO SUGGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE AND A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN.. 09/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...

37841389 37801291 36781242 34471174 33991245 34021370
34221458 36031464 37301456 