[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 081729
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081727 
MIZ000-WIZ000-081930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1947
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT FRI SEP 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI...NRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 081727Z - 081930Z

A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS
NRN UPPER MI AND ACROSS NRN LAKE HURON OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS.
WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING FAR NRN LOWER
MI EXTENDING WSWWD INTO CNTRL WI. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY IS INCREASING AND MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 100O TO 1500 ACROSS LOWER MI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INITIATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN A BAND OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WITH THE CAPPING INVERSION GONE ACROSS LOWER
MI AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...STORMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A BAND OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHICH IS RESULTING IN MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
ALREADY STEEP AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEEPEN
THIS AFTERNOON MAKING HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS.

..BROYLES.. 09/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...

44608282 43848552 43398789 43598838 44028878 44958831
46048341 45358253