[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Sep 8 06:35:19 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 080637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080637 
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-080830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1946
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 AM CDT FRI SEP 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NV...ERN CA...WRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 080637Z - 080830Z

ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SWD OVER THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SEVERE WIND GUSTS OCCURRED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY EARLIER AND LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. RELATIVELY LIMITED COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SUGGESTS A
WATCH IS NOT LIKELY.

LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX STARTED EARLIER ACROSS SRN NV AND WILL
MOVE INTO LA PAZ AND SWRN YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN AZ SHORTLY. ACTIVITY
MAY PERSIST AND DEVELOP INTO NWRN MARICOPA COUNTY AZ THROUGH 08Z.
GREATER WIND THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS MOVING INTO NRN LA PAZ
COUNTY WHERE INTERSECTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE
MAINTAINING AN INTENSE UPDRAFT IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR. THIS PARTICULAR CELL HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO BOW AND
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY IS FAVORABLY ORIENTED WITH STRONGER DEEP LAYER
FLOW...THUS DIRECTING STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ATOP TRAILING COLD POOL
FROM LAKE HAVASU CITY NNWWD TO LAS VEGAS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
STRUGGLE WHERE AIR MASS HAS BEEN PARTIALLY OVERTURNED FROM PRIOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUST REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS BACKBUILDING ACTIVITY.

..CARBIN.. 09/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

34431333 34071270 33721295 33621334 33691403 34091473
34481514 35421573 36331606 36511598 35761537 35051489
34641436 

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