[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 021845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021845 
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-022015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1926
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT SAT SEP 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL IA...SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 021845Z - 022015Z

AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN IA
AND SRN MN...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ALTHOUGH
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG A
MOIST AXIS ORIENTED SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN IA AND
SRN MN WHERE SBCAPES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES EWD INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
STRENGTHENS AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS DECREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP AND ANY
HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.

..BROYLES.. 09/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

41429272 41289387 41749415 42879458 43919488 44759500
45149421 44969298 44509218 43289221 

WWWW