[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 011631
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011630 
VAZ000-011800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1923
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT FRI SEP 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN NC INTO SERN VA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 762...

VALID 011630Z - 011800Z

THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN VA...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MARGINAL. AN ADDITIONAL WW BEYOND 18Z IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
NEEDED.

THIS AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS LOCATED OVER NERN NC MOVING
IN A GENERAL NWD DIRECTION. BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE N AND E OF
THE CENTER...AND 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HEATING. VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING REMAINS WITH
INLAND CONVECTION. AS THE CENTER MOVES NWD...IT WILL ENCOUNTER A
LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH A SLIGHTLY
COOLER MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NWD EXTENT INTO SERN VA. THIS
SUGGESTS OVERALL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 09/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...

36587588 36627675 37507690 37827624 37617560 37097578 

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