[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Sep 1 11:43:51 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 011146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011145 
VAZ000-NCZ000-011345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1922
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CDT FRI SEP 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NC...SERN VA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 762...

VALID 011145Z - 011345Z

SRN PORTIONS WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM S-N...AND THREAT APPEARS TO BE
GETTING MORE QUESTIONABLE IN NWRN SECTIONS OF WW...W OF CHESAPEAKE
BAY.  SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT FROM CYCLONE CENTER
NEWD ACROSS BERTIE COUNTY...THROUGH ECG...AND OVER NRN BEACHES OF
CURRITUCK COUNTY...THEN ENEWD TO ROUGHLY 15 NW OF BUOY 44014. 
PRIMARY CONVERGENCE BAND AS OF 1130Z EXTENDS FROM JUST OFFSHORE VA
BEACH...SWD ACROSS ERN-MOST REACHES OF DARE COUNTY IN OUTER BANKS. 
NWD FRONTAL MOTION OVER LAND WILL BE SLOWER THAN TRANSLATIONAL SPEED
OF TS CENTER...AND MAY BARELY BRING OPTIMALLY BUOYANT MARINE SECTOR
INLAND OVER SERN VA...IF AT ALL.

SFC TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT WAS ANALYZED FROM TS CENTER ESEWD ACROSS
BEAUFORT COUNTY AND SRN PAMLICO SOUND. MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
SFC-BASED MINI-SUPERCELLS WILL BE BETWEEN FRONT AND TROUGH...E
THROUGH NE OF CENTER...WHERE 400-700 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH MAY
JUXTAPOSE WITH SIMILAR VALUES OF SBCAPE.  TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
DIMINISH WITH INWARD EXTENT FROM CONVERGENCE BAND BECAUSE OF
SOMEWHAT WEAKER SHEAR AND MORE NEBULOUS CONVECTIVE MODE...AS OPPOSED
TO STRONG LIFT AND RELATIVELY DISCRETE STRUCTURES CHARACTERIZING
ACTIVITY IN SPIRAL BAND.  FARTHER S...FROM SFC TROUGH SWD...TORNADO
POTENTIAL DIMINISHES MARKEDLY BECAUSE OF WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR...AS
WELL AS ROBUST LOW LEVEL DRY SLOT AND CAA INTRUDING IN INNER SRN
SEMICIRCLE OF THIS SYSTEM.  THIS DRYING/COOLING...ALSO EVIDENT IN
SFC ANALYSIS...WILL ADVANCE INTO ERN SEMICIRCLE FASTER THAN WARM
FRONTAL MOTION...LEADING TO BAROCLINIC OCCLUSION PROCESS AT SFC.

..EDWARDS.. 09/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

34957580 36137631 36807717 37847648 37957527 37847491
36757560 35697513 34937527 

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