[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 010656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010655 
NCZ000-VAZ000-010900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 AM CDT FRI SEP 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NC...EXTREME SERN VA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 761...

VALID 010655Z - 010900Z

REPLACEMENT WW IS EXPECTED BEFORE SCHEDULED 9Z EXPIRATION OF WW 761.
 TS ERNESTO HAS MOVED INLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNEWD ACROSS
ERN NC COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING...PER NHC FCST. AS
THIS OCCURS...FAVORABLE STRENGTHENING OF GRADIENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ABOVE SFC ACROSS SERN VA AND NERN NC...NE OF TS CENTER.  PRIMARY
SUPERCELL-PRODUCING SPIRAL BAND SHOULD SHIFT NNEWD ACROSS ALBEMARLE
AND NERN PAMLICO SOUND REGION DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS...THOUGH MORE
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY MOVE ONSHORE FROM OUTER BANKS TO NEAR VA
BORDER.

6Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT AND COLLOCATED WIND SHIFT LINE FROM
OAJ NEWD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS JONES...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...THEN ENEWD
ACROSS WASHINGTON/TYRRELL COUNTIES NC AND ERN ALBEMARLE
SOUND...CROSSING COAST NEAR CURRITUCK/DARE COUNTY LINE.  PRIND FRONT
WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS NERN NC AND PERHAPS EXTREME SERN VA...BENEATH
STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT.  HODOGRAPHS WILL BE MAXIMIZED INVOF FRONT
WHERE SFC WINDS ARE RELATIVELY BACKED...BUT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO
ITS E IN RELATIVELY UNSTABLE MARITIME/TROPICAL AIR AS WELL.  0-1 KM
SRH ACROSS NERN NC SHOULD INCREASE TO AOA 500 J/KG AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR VECTOR LENGTHENS.  FRONT IS A BUOYANCY-LIMITING TYPE...WITH
TORNADO PROBABILITIES DROPPING GREATLY FROM E-W INTO THE COOLER AIR.
ALTHOUGH THE E-W THETAE DROP THROUGH FRONT IS SUBTLE...THIS IS
SUFFICIENT TO REMOVE SBCAPE AND GREATLY INCREASE CINH BENEATH
WEAK/MOIST-ADIABATIC DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES.  THEREFORE TORNADO RISK
WILL BE STRONGLY TIED TO LOCATION OF MARINE AIR -- ALONG AND E OF
FRONT.

..EDWARDS.. 09/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

34317709 35137736 35547781 36747659 37047584 36837551
36247542 35827517 35177522 34897538 34827583 34447623
34267646 

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