[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Sep 1 03:57:28 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 010359
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010359 
NCZ000-010530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1920
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 761...

VALID 010359Z - 010530Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY LAND FALLING SUPERCELLS.

AS OF 0340Z...MOREHEAD CITY RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO APPROXIMATELY 20 S ILM WITH A GENERAL MOVEMENT OF 190/8 KTS.
AS ANTICIPATED...WARM FRONT INITIALLY OFFSHORE...HAS PIVOTED NWWD
AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR CIRCULATION CENTER NEWD ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES TO 30-40 ESE ECG.  CURRENTLY...MOST ACTIVE FEEDER BAND
/WITH EMBEDDED TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS/ EXTENDS FROM NEAR AND W OF OAJ
SEWD TO 100 ESE ILM.  MODIFICATION OF RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FOR
SURFACE CONDITIONS NEAR AND E OF WARM FRONT YIELDS SBCAPES OF
300-500 J/KG WITHIN VERY MOIST VERTICAL PROFILE WITH PW/S OF 2.5
INCHES.

VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LOW TO MID-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONE SUSTENANCE WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 400-450 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS.  THEREFORE...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
EMBEDDED IN LARGER CONVECTIVE BANDS.  THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD EXIST FROM NEAR OR JUST W OF WARM FRONT EWD INTO
COMPARATIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

..MEAD.. 09/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...

34177773 34647785 35567734 36307659 36417602 36307558
35947519 34677562 33847668 

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