[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Oct 30 05:52:31 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 300555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300555 
NDZ000-MTZ000-301100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2174
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST SUN OCT 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT THROUGH NWRN ND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 300555Z - 301100Z

SNOWFALL RATES LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE OVER
NERN MT WITH HEAVIER RATES DEVELOPING EWD INTO NWRN ND THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING.

THIS EVENING A SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER WRN SD. A SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH S CNTRL SD WITH A STRONG 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM ERN MT NEWD THROUGH ND. A STRONG UPPER JET WILL
ADVANCE EWD THROUGH SRN MT/NRN WY THIS MORNING...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE
CYCLONE OVER SD. AS THIS OCCURS A SELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS ND WITH INCREASING 800-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN VICINITY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NERN MT INTO
NWRN ND. NAM PFCS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ABOVE 600 MB AS THE COLUMN
SATURATES AND AS MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ADVANCES SEWD. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOWFALL RATES COULD
OCCUR. RATES LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR COULD OCCUR WITHIN
THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.

..DIAL.. 10/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

48580158 48070218 47050570 47480749 48520686 49060397
48960199 