[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Oct 27 14:11:52 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 271414
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271414 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-271615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0914 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN MS...SRN AL...EXTREME SERN LA...WRN
FL PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 841...

VALID 271414Z - 271615Z

PRIMARY LINE OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS WW
AREA...MOST INTENSE PORTIONS CLEARING PLAQUEMINES PARISH LA AND SERN
MS WITHIN BY ABOUT 16Z AND REMAINDER OF SERN LA BY ABOUT 1430Z. 
ADDITIONAL/BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS LINE
FROM PERDIDO RIVER SWWD OFFSHORE AL.  SVR THREAT WILL EXTEND EWD
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS WRN FL PANHANDLE...PERHAPS SRN TIER AL COUNTIES
N OF FL BORDER...AND MAY REQUIRE EITHER ADDITIONAL WW OR LOCAL
EXTENSION FOR THOSE AREAS.

SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM COASTAL WATERS NEAR AAF NWWD ACROSS
ESCAMBIA COUNTIES OF FL/AL....THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE AMIDST PRECIP
PLUME. FRONT SHOULD DRIFT NWD THROUGH REMAINDER OF MORNING.  GIVEN
ITS ORIENTATION...FAVORABLE BUOYANCY EXTENDS LESS FAR INLAND WITH
EWD EXTENT.  RAIN-COOLED AIR IS FCST TO COVER MUCH OF SRN AL N OF FL
PANHANDLE...PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL DIABATIC DESTABILIZATION AT SFC
AND PRECLUDING FASTER INLAND PENETRATION OF MARINE AIR MASS.  GIVEN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OFFSHORE...AND FCST SLY COMPONENT OF SFC
FLOW...PRIND SFC DEW POINTS MAY RECOVER INTO LOW 70S OVER COASTAL
AREAS FROM AAF WNWWD TOWARD PNS.  ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE MODE WILL
REMAIN LARGELY LINEAR ON MESOSCALE...SOME EMBEDDED/RELATIVELY
DISCRETE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD ROTATE AMIDST FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES...WITH CONTINUED RISK OF TORNADOES.  DAMAGING GUSTS
ALSO ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH SMALL BOWS.  PRE-STORM LIX
SOUNDING...MOB VWP AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER SPEED SHEAR TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS -- I.E. 150-350
J/KG 0-1 KM SRH -- DESPITE LACK OF MORE PRONOUNCED DIRECTIONAL
VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THAT LAYER.

..EDWARDS.. 10/27/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

29059056 29458957 30048933 30628908 30968872 31288790
31208678 31038601 30738551 30078526 29728539 29768548
30088578 30348638 30338701 30188837 30048884 29788879
29548900 29368921 29168895 28918941 29308976 29019026 