[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 201656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201656 
RIZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-201900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT FRI OCT 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NRN NJ...SERN NY...RI...CT AND WRN/CNTRL
MA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 201656Z - 201900Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH CONVECTIVE
LINE MOVING NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE NERN U.S. AND SRN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN ERN PA SWD THROUGH MD AND
ERN VA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SERN NY INTO
CT AND RI. WARM SECTOR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY
LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES...WITH MLCAPE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 300 J/KG. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS NEWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF
UPPER JET. LIFT ACCOMPANYING STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CYCLOGENESIS WILL MAINTAIN A FORCED LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION
WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING NEAR COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
LIFT NEWD THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW NORMAL TO THE
LINE WILL INCREASE IN POST FRONTAL ZONE AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS...AND MUCH OF THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY RESULT FROM
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW. SOME POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR 
DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG THE
LINE.

..DIAL.. 10/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

41047180 40557373 40097427 40297522 41137511 42637324
42547179 41607129 

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