[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Oct 17 04:28:30 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 170430
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170429 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-170530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2131
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN-SERN LA/CENTRAL-SRN MS/SWRN AL/FAR WRN
FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 832...833...

VALID 170429Z - 170530Z

THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES TO CONTINUE ACROSS VALID
PARTS OF TORNADO WATCHES 832 AND 833.

STRONGEST ACTIVITY WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES HAS BECOME PRIMARILY CONFINED TO A LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN
CURRENTLY INDICATED BY REGIONAL RADARS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MS
SWWD THROUGH SWRN MS TO SOUTH CENTRAL LA.  A TROPICAL-TYPE AIR MASS
RESIDES ACROSS WATCHES 832 AND 833 WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S. 
DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY PER WEAK LAPSE RATES...STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 55-65 KT AND 0-1 KM SRH OF
400-600+ M2/S2 REMAINS ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT...IN
ADDITION TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH BOWING SEGMENTS...TORNADO
POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ALONG THE LEWP AND WITH
BOW HEADS.

..PETERS.. 10/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

29249346 31429142 31579114 32559024 33248972 33258834
32818801 32668690 30998642 30078646 29788798 30078937
30009056 29499104 28879129 

WWWW