[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Oct 16 18:54:39 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 161856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161856 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-162000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA/SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 161856Z - 162000Z

TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING E OF TORNADO WATCH
830 INTO ERN LA/SRN MS.  NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS ERN LA AND
ADJACENT SRN MS...WITH INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS MOVING N. 
ALONG WITH THE LACK OF OBSERVED LIGHTNING...THE NWD CELL MOTION
SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVECTION REMAINS SHALLOW...BENEATH
APPROXIMATELY 600 MB WHERE FLOW SHIFTS FROM SLY TO SWLY.

HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT LIKELY TO COOL THE MID
TROPOSPHERE...CONVECTION SHOULD DEEPEN WITH TIME AND EVENTUALLY
RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME LIGHTNING...GIVEN MID 70S BOUNDARY-LAYER
DEWPOINTS WHICH CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD INTO SRN MS.

THOUGH A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE ONGOING/ROTATING
SHOWERS...GREATER TORNADO THREAT WOULD EVOLVE AS CONVECTION DEEPENS
WITH TIME.  THEREFORE...NEW TORNADO WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED
ATTM...REFLECTING THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
THE AREA OF INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 10/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

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