[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Oct 16 17:37:23 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 161739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161739 
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-161915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX/WRN HALF OF LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 830...

VALID 161739Z - 161915Z

TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW.

SURFACE ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLOW NWD ADVECTION OF
TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS INTO NRN LA...WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN
THE MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF WW. THOUGH WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES/WEAK LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO LIMIT OVERALL
INSTABILITY...SHEAR REMAINS VERY CONDUCIVE FOR LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLOGENESIS.  FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
TIME...AS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FASTER FLOW FIELD ALOFT
APPROACH FROM THE W AND LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.  

INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK -- AS FURTHER ILLUSTRATED BY OVERALL
LACK OF CG LIGHTNING.  HOWEVER...DEGREE OF SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ROTATION WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS -- AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITHIN NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE CELLS ACROSS
THIS REGION.  ALONG WITH THREAT SPREADING NWD WITH TIME ACROSS
LA...TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO MS AND ERN LA --
E OF WW -- WITH TIME...POSSIBLY REQUIRING NEW WW ISSUANCE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

..GOSS.. 10/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

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