[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Oct 16 08:48:42 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 160850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160850 
TXZ000-161015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2121
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 160850Z - 161015Z

SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA THROUGH 12Z.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW
ISSUANCE.

08Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR DRT WITH
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING GENERALLY EWD TO NEAR OR JUST S OF
SAT.  AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS WARM AND QUITE MOIST EARLY
THIS MORNING...SUPPORTING MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH LITTLE OR NO
CAP.  TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO...W-SW OF DRT...LIKELY BEING DRIVEN BY
HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW SHIFTING
SEWD THROUGH SRN NM.

RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS...AND FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS STORMS CROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND
ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT. 
CURRENT VWP FROM DRT INDICATES VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF AROUND 150 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
OF 40 KT.  WHILE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
INTERACTING WITH WARM FRONT.

..MEAD.. 10/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

29660084 29910058 29969991 29929929 29479883 28989882
28349916 28119942 28049998 28880068 