[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Oct 16 08:24:02 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 160826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160825 
LAZ000-TXZ000-161000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2120
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE / UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 827...

VALID 160825Z - 161000Z

THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES
ACROSS WW AREA.

08Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MARITIME WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM APPROXIMATELY 40 N VCT TO JUST N OF HOU TO NEAR BPT WITH
DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 70S TO THE S OF THIS BOUNDARY. 
CURRENT HOU VWP INDICATES MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TO THE S OF THIS
BOUNDARY WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2...HOWEVER RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY INVOF THIS
BOUNDARY WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-300 M2/S2.

TRAINING SUPERCELLS CONTINUE AS OF 0815Z FROM CHAMBERS/LIBERTY
COUNTIES SWWD TO OFF GALVESTON ISLAND...A TREND WHICH HAS PERSISTED
FOR THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.  WHILE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL EXIST WITH ANY SUPERCELLS ACROSS WW AREA...IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL IS WITH STORMS MOVING NEWD AND INTERACTING WITH
THE MARINE WARM FRONT WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED.  THIS
WOULD INCLUDE AREAS FROM HARRIS EWD THROUGH LIBERTY AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES THROUGH 10Z.  EXPECT THIS ENHANCED THREAT TO SLOWLY SHIFT
NWD WITH TIME IN CONCERT WITH THE NWD RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT.

..MEAD.. 10/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

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28779103 29019362 27869629 