[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Oct 16 03:55:32 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 160357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160357 
LAZ000-TXZ000-160500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...TX COASTAL PLAINS...SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 160357Z - 160500Z

A SUBTLE...YET POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT...DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NEWD
ACROSS NERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TX AT ROUGHLY 35 KT.  THIS FEATURE
APPEARS LOOSELY CONNECTED TO TROPICAL SYSTEM DEEP OVER CNTRL MEXICO
WHICH IS NOW EJECTING AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH.  OF PARTICULAR
CONCERN IS THE SATURATED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS IN PLACE
WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.  LLJ IS
INCREASING ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST TO THE SABINE RIVER AND A WEAK
SFC LOW...OR AT LEAST A WAVE...WILL FORM ALONG THE WARM FRONT NEAR
SAT OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.  LATEST THINKING IS SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AHEAD OF DISTURBANCE
...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.  TORNADO THREAT WILL
BECOME A CONCERN AS UPDRAFTS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 10/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

27629720 28519775 29709734 30839483 30569319 29539290
28829507 27959656 

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