[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Oct 15 23:55:40 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 152357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152357 
TXZ000-160100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 826...

VALID 152357Z - 160100Z

MULTI SEGMENTED WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOST FOCUSED AHEAD OF WEAK
SFC LOW JUST SOUTH OF MAF...COINCIDENT WITH STRONGEST SUPERCELL THAT
HAS RECENTLY PRODUCED A TORNADO.  LATEST SFC MAP SUGGESTS AT LEAST
TWO IDENTIFIABLE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...ORIENTED E-W...EXTEND ACROSS
CNTRL TX INTO THIS REGION.  BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CERTAINLY
SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S...HOWEVER WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IS LIMITING OVERALL
INSTABILITY...EXCEPT ALONG A NARROW WEDGE ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
INTO THE ERN SECTIONS OF THE TRANS PECOS.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
UPDRAFT INTENSITY WILL STRUGGLE WITH MANY STORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-20 WHERE STORM ROTATION IS LACKING.  IN THE SHORT TERM TORNADIC
SUPERCELL NW OF FST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

..DARROW.. 10/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

30520249 31070336 32040255 32320163 31840088 30790117 

WWWW