[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 151446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151445 
TXZ000-NMZ000-151545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0945 AM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE NM INTO SW/W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 151445Z - 151545Z

EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CLOSED LOW IS STILL SLOW...BUT BECOMING A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU THIS MORNING...AND
FORCING APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  MOST INTENSE CELL TRACKING
ACROSS NORTHERN LEA COUNTY NM INTO AREAS WEST OF LUBBOCK SEEMS TO BE
WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BECOME MAXIMIZED IN WAKE OF AN
IMPULSE ALREADY LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING
ON SOUTHERN/EASTERN FRINGE OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO PARTS OF
THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
 
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...AND UNCERTAINTIES
DO EXIST CONCERNING MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATED
SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD ALLOW FOR
SURFACE HEATING BY MID DAY.  IF THIS OCCURS... MIXED LAYER CAPE
COULD APPROACH/EXCEED 1000 J/KG...PROVIDING INCREASING SUPPORT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME.  BENEATH 40-45 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...20+ KT SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE SURFACE
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT... BUT DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...PERHAPS A TORNADO.

..KERR.. 10/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

32680647 33490563 34270486 34890415 35260287 34620195
33790147 33090173 32360217 31760292 31340439 31180592
31650638 

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