[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Oct 15 10:03:44 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 151005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151005 
NMZ000-TXZ000-151130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 AM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL NM INTO FAR WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 151005Z - 151130Z

INTENSIFYING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS
MORNING.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS OF 0950Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED INTENSIFYING TSTMS OVER
PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NM...TO THE N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED
FROM S OF ELP NWWD INTO W-CNTRL NM.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT A BAND OF IMPLIED DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT /PRECEDING
UPPER LOW OVER AZ/ IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD THROUGH NM AND ACTING
ON A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND CONTRIBUTING TO THIS
STORM DEVELOPMENT.  BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THESE STORMS ARE
LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION WITHIN
AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPES OF 500-800 J/KG.  CORRESPONDING
KINEMATIC PROFILES APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
GIVEN 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ABOVE THIS FRONTAL
INVERSION.

THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED SEVERE
HAIL...HOWEVER THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT A MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

..MEAD.. 10/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

32310806 33030796 33540742 33340607 32720545 32020513
31500526 31280566 31550673 

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