[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 142054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142054 
TXZ000-NMZ000-142230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2112
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...W TX...EXTREME SE NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 142054Z - 142230Z

WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
W TX/SE NM THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER FAR W TX THIS AFTERNOON ON THE
NOSE OF AN 80-100 KT UPPER JET /PER WHITE SANDS PROFILER/ AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND REDUCED
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. E OF THIS ACTIVITY...BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE SPREADING NWWD UP THE PECOS
VALLEY...AND THIS MOISTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR OVER
THIS AREA /ROUGHLY 6 C/KM/...AND THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL DESPITE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORING SUPERCELLS. 
THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND...AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A WW.

..THOMPSON.. 10/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

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