[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Oct 14 19:40:04 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 141942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141941 
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-142115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NW AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 141941Z - 142115Z

CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS NW AZ THIS
AFTERNOON...IMMEDIATELY E OF THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER EXTREME
SE CA. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT A WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT...AND BENEATH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR -18 C...IS SUPPORTING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 C/KM AND SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NW AZ.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE GRADUALLY IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THE NEXT FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY E/NE OF THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.  HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE MODEST
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING VERTICAL SHEAR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MID LEVEL LOW.

..THOMPSON.. 10/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...VEF...

36601321 36371282 35571272 35071288 34501367 34421449
35041478 35501481 36441431 36651384 