[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 052201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052201 
UTZ000-AZZ000-052330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2080
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT THU OCT 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN AND CNTRL AZ INTO SRN UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 052201Z - 052330Z

POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED...SEVERE
WINDS/HAIL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING
FROM NEAR SGU TO E OF IGM TO N OF PHX...DISPLACED TO THE E OF
PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW OVER E-CNTRL CA.  RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND
LOCAL VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT A BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE
N OF THIS BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY
FROM N OF PRC TO NEAR PGA.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE TENDED TO LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
WITHIN THIS ZONE OF FORCING WITH MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG.

HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING...IT APPEARS
THAT INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT.  THE PRESENCE OF DEEP SLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT OF
SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.  THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN AND INSTABILITY
DECREASES.

..MEAD.. 10/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

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