[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Oct 5 20:08:58 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 052008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052008 
IDZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-052215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2079
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT THU OCT 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND S-CNTRL ID...EXTREME NERN NV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 052008Z - 052215Z

THREAT EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH A THREAT OF
BRIEF TORNADOES AND HAIL. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELD EXPANDING NWD ACROSS NERN NV INTO
SWRN ID...MAINLY OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN...AND ALSO OVER THE CNTRL
ID MTNS. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AGAIN IN PLACE ALONG
WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES FAVORING SUPERCELLS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE INCREASING E OF SFC TROUGH AXIS...WHERE LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE BACKED.

LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NOT AS IDEAL AS YESTERDAY GIVEN SLIGHT UPPER
RIDGING TAKING PLACE. THIS IS REFLECTED BY EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD
OVER UT INTO SERN ID/FAR ERN NV. SURFACE HEATING IS ALSO BEING
HAMPERED UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. THUS...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. MOST LIKELY LOCATION
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE OVER FAR SWRN ID/NERN
NV...CROSSING INTO THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE CNTRL MTNS.
GIVEN STRONGLY BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A STRONG STORM...A TORNADO
COULD OCCUR BUT WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF GIVEN ONLY MARGINALLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND UNDERCUTTING STABLE OUTFLOW.

..JEWELL.. 10/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...

41491542 42441604 43341603 44491537 44761474 44701338
43951276 42731290 42111362 41551413 