[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Oct 4 04:17:44 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 040417
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040416 
MIZ000-WIZ000-040615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 PM CDT TUE OCT 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WI...CENTRAL/NRN LM...LOWER PENINSULA OF
MI...WRN LH.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 809...810...

VALID 040416Z - 040615Z

ELEVATED MCS IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD FROM WI AND N-CENTRAL
LM...ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN LOWER MI.  40-50 KT LLJ IS EVIDENT
ACROSS SRN WI AND SWRN LOWER MI BASED ON VWP/PROFILER DATA...TAMDAR
SOUNDINGS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS....ALONG WITH 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR. MUCAPES INCREASE WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS LOWER MI FROM
500-2500 J/KG...DIMINISH OVER WRN LM...THEN INCREASE OVER WI AGAIN
TO NEAR 4000 J/KG S LSE.  OTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN BAND
EXTENDING FROM ERN PORTION OF MCS NEAR HTL SSEWD TO NEAR DTX...ALONG
ERN RIM OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTENING. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY
WILL REMAIN LOWER INVOF THIS ACTIVITY THAN FARTHER W...TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE MRGL SVR HAIL AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD WRN/SRN LH AND ACROSS
MI THUMB.

LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL/ERN WI HAS BEEN STABILIZED
TEMPORARILY ABOVE SFC BY COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER EAU
AREA SUPERCELL AND CONVECTION NOW OVER ERN WI. HOWEVER...WAA ATOP
NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER MAY DESTABILIZE AIR MASS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SVR
HAIL POTENTIAL FROM ADDITIONAL TSTMS MOVING EWD FROM SERN MN AND WW
808.

..EDWARDS.. 10/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...

44059148 44999269 45668354 42548277 