[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Oct 4 02:12:08 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 040210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040210 
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-040415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2067
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 PM CDT TUE OCT 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MN...W-CENTRAL/SWRN WI.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 808...

VALID 040210Z - 040415Z

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PREVIOUS TWO FRONTAL ZONES CONSOLIDATING ACROSS
S-CENTRAL/SERN MN AND SWRN WI...E OF LOW LOCATED ABOUT 50 SW MKT. 
THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD GENERALLY ALONG MN/IA LINE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL WITH HISTORY OF UP TO 1.75 INCH HAIL IN
DUNN COUNTY WI IS MOVING SEWD 30-35 KT FROM TREMPEALEAU/JACKSON
COUNTIES...GENERALLY ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN 850-925 MB LAYER.  THIS
ACTIVITY HAS POTENTIAL FOR EVEN LARGER HAIL AS IT MOVES SEWD TOWARD
AREA NEAR OR JUST NE OF VOK...AND INTO WW 809.

MEANWHILE...FARTHER W...SFC CAA CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS
SWRN/S-CENTRAL MN...N OF NRN FRONT.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND
INTERPOLATED MSP/ABR RAOB DATA SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO
STABLE TO SUPPORT SFC-BASED/TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ALONG AND NW OF A
MSP-RWF LINE...HOWEVER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND ELEVATED
BUOYANCY WILL PRESENT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.  ELEVATED
WAA...SUPPORTING MUCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG...ALONG WITH 60-70 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR SVR OVER THIS
AREA.  SFC DIABATIC COOLING IN FRONTAL ZONE IS INCREASING SBCINH. 
ACCORDINGLY...BUOYANCY EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH
TIME...BUT STILL FAVORING SVR AMIDST STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES.

..EDWARDS.. 10/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

43499333 43539412 43799470 44159479 45089395 45199215
45099105 44759080 43889062 43509057 

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