[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 040142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040142 
MIZ000-040345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2066
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0842 PM CDT TUE OCT 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN LOWER MI...CENTRAL/NRN LM.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 040142Z - 040345Z

LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL IS FCST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH
REMAINDER EVENING AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES ABOVE SFC.  THIS WILL
PROMOTE BOTH NEW TSTMS DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF ACTIVITY
MOVING EWD 30-40 KT FROM WI/LM.

RAOB ANALYSIS...INCLUDING TAMDAR SOUNDING DATA...INDICATES 850 MB
WARM FRONT MOVING NEWD 30-35 KT FROM SRN WI AND NERN IL ACROSS SWRN
LM AND TOWARD THIS REGION.  AS THIS FRONT APCHS...LLJ SHOULD
STRENGTHEN INTO 35-45 KT RANGE.  MOIST ADVECTION AND WAA-RELATED
ASCENT IN 850-700 MB LAYER ARE FCST TO BOOST RH TO NEAR SATURATION
ABOVE RELATIVELY STABLE NEAR-SFC LAYER.  THIS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
WEAKEN CINH AND ALLOW PARCELS TO BE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC. 
MODIFIED/UPSTREAM GRB RAOB...AND TIME SERIES OF RUC SOUNDINGS FOR
WRN LOWER MI...SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED MUCAPES WILL INCREASE THROUGH
AT LEAST 07Z TO 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.  MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED HAIL POTENTIAL...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEARS
INCREASING TO 40-50 KT RANGE.  INCREASES IN BOTH BUOYANCY AND SHEAR
SHOULD OCCUR FROM W-E ACROSS THIS AREA...AS WILL POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS
TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

..EDWARDS.. 10/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

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