[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Oct 3 23:21:15 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 032320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032320 
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-040045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 PM CDT TUE OCT 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MN...W-CENTRAL/SWRN WI.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 808...

VALID 032320Z - 040045Z

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW INVOF MURRAY COUNTY MN...WARM FRONT ESEWD
TO BETWEEN LSE-DBQ THEN ACROSS WI/IL BORDER REGION.  SECONDARY
FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM SFC LOW NEWD OVER MSP METRO...TO NEAR
EAU...THEN SEWD TOWARD MKE.  NRN FRONTAL ZONE IS QUASISTATIONARY
ACROSS WI AND ERN MN...BUT IS MOVING SWD OVER SWRN MN ALONG AND JUST
NE OF SFC LOW POSITION.  WW MAY BE CLEARED N OF SWD-MOVING SEGMENT
OF NRN FRONT -- ACROSS SWRN AND PORTIONS S-CENTAL MN WHERE CAA WILL
STABILIZE AIR MASS TOO MUCH FOR SFC-BASED STORMS AND TORNADO
POTENTIAL.

EXPECT WARM FRONT TO LIFT NWD 15-20 KT SUCH THAT THESE FRONTS MERGE
LATER THIS EVENING.  MOST FAVORABLY SHEARED AND BUOYANT AIR MASS
REMAINS BETWEEN THESE FRONTS OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN MN AND PERHAPS SWRN
WI.  SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS WITH ANY CONVECTION
THAT DOES DEVELOP IN THAT REGIME DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH BASE
OF EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS REMAINING AT SFC FOR TEMPS ROUGHLY 73-74
F AND HIGHER.  SFC CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED NEAR LOW AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS WARM FRONT...AS LOW MOVES SLOWLY EWD.  MAIN
CONCERN ATTM IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION CAN INITIATE IN THIS AIR
MASS...GIVEN APPARENT INCREASE IN SBCINH NOW UNDERWAY. VIS IMAGERY
SHOWS THICK MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO REGION FROM W. 
WHILE THIS REPRESENTS AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ALOFT...IT ALSO HAS
INCREASED SBCINH THROUGH SHADING EFFECTS AND RESULTANT EARLY LOSS OF
SFC INSOLATION.  AIR MASS ALONG AND JUST S OF NRN FRONT -- BETWEEN
MSP-EAU -- MAY BE FAVORABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG...THOUGH
THIS WILL DECREASE WITH TIME AS SFC COOLS.  NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED
FARTHER E FROM EAU AREA ACROSS CENTRAL WI...AS NOTED IN MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 2064.

..EDWARDS.. 10/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...

43499333 43539412 43799470 44159479 44729378 45119209
45099105 44709039 43699016 43509057 