[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Oct 17 00:20:54 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 170022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170022 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-170115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2129
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA/PART OF SERN LA/CENTRAL AND SRN MS/SWRN
AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 832...

VALID 170022Z - 170115Z

PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN
WW 832.  AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS TO THE NORTH
OF WW 832 INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN MS.

VERY MOIST /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S/ AIR MASS
EXTENDING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SRN AR TO WEST CENTRAL MS TO SWRN AL
COMBINED WITH STRONG VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUPPORTS A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR TORNADOES.  THIS THREAT IS EVIDENT WITH 1) DISCRETE CELLS
IN WARM SECTOR WHICH EXTENDED FROM ERN/SRN LA EWD TO SWRN AL AND NWD
INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MS...AND 2) EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS
IN LINE OF STORMS WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM SW LA TO WEST
CENTRAL MS.

FARTHER N IN MS /TO THE N OF WW 832/...EXTENSIVE ONGOING RAINFALL
HAS STABILIZED THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION.  EMBEDDED BOWING
SEGMENTS ALONG THE NORTH END OF THE LINE OF STORMS...WHICH HAS MOVED
FROM NERN LA INTO WEST CENTRAL MS...WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.  REGIONAL RADARS SUGGEST STORM ROTATION WITH
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY THE N END OF BOWING SEGMENTS...
WHICH COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.  GIVEN THIS ISOLATED
THREAT...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

..PETERS.. 10/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

32528678 30738633 30008640 29818832 30178958 30129085
30119134 30829173 31339185 31579227 32219214 32899127
33749107 33759045 33758932 33588831 32778810 32498748 

WWWW