[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Oct 10 06:40:35 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 100643
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100643 
TXZ000-100815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW TX...FROM THE TX BIG BEND INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 100643Z - 100815Z

TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF SW
TX...LIKELY REQUIRING TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.  THIS WATCH WOULD
INCLUDE AREAS CURRENTLY WITHIN THE SRN HALF OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 819.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS INCREASING WITH TIME
WITHIN MOIST SELY FLOW S OF COLD FRONT -- WHICH HAS BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY S OF SAN ANGELO...ACROSS MCCULLOCH/MENARD/ SCHLEICHER
COUNTIES OF SW TX.  WITH LITTLE SWD PUSH OF THE FRONT EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE...WITH LOW 70S
DEWPOINTS NOW AS FAR NW AS UVA /UVALDE TX/.  

THOUGH STORM MORPHOLOGY REMAINS MORE CLUSTERED/LINEAR N OF FRONT...A
FEW ISOLATED/SUPERCELL STORMS ARE INDICATED S OF FRONT.  AS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT S OF
FRONT WITHIN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  

GIVEN DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL VEERING OBSERVED /10 KT SELY SURFACE WINDS
INCREASING TO 30 KT FROM THE SW AT 3 KM PER LATEST DEL RIO WSR-88D
VWP/...COMBINATION OF INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT...AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THE TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA.

..GOSS.. 10/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

30760317 31030165 31049848 30019845 28920011 29030061
29730143 29800238 29730268 29020318 29170387 29440410 