[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 301300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301259 
OKZ000-TXZ000-301700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2246
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST THU NOV 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 301259Z - 301700Z

SCATTERED FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN
AREAL COVERAGE FROM NCNTRL INTO CNTRL TX THIS MORNING.

12Z FWD SOUNDING IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...LIFTING A PARCEL NEAR 850MB YIELDS SEVERAL HUNDRED
J/KG MUCAPE.  LATEST RADAR/LIGHTNING DATA SUPPORT THIS PROFILE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST N OF
DAL...WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTION FROM SPS...SWD TO NEAR BWD. 
WRN ACTIVITY IS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER PVA...WHICH SHOULD
SPREAD INTO NCNTRL/CNTRL TX LATER THIS MORNING.  LATEST THINKING IS
AREAS WEST OF I-35 SHOULD CONTINUE TO COOL BELOW FREEZING AS SHOWERS
INCREASE AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH.  STRONGER ECHOES COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT BRIEF...FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...ESPECIALLY WITH
DEEP CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

..DARROW.. 11/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

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